March 6

For President Bush, the row over his first round of TV ads rumbles on, overshadowing his fundraising trip to California.

Bear in mind, of course, that despite all the controversy they've generated, these were 'positive' ads. Somehow, you can't help thinking we ain't seen nothing yet...

The potential for negativity in this campaign, particularly if the Bush campaign feels its message isn't resonating, seems to be immense. Especially so if Kerry isn't able to define a positive message of his own as the campaign drags on.

Yes, the fall election will be first and foremost a referendum on Bush, but the Kerry folks know it's crucial that they present a vision of a clear executive vision and an administration-in-waiting.

In the Veepstakes, Edwards continues to lead the pack of the usual - and some unusual - suspects. Letterman, meanwhile, is convinced it's going to be Hillary Clinton....

March 4

With the nomination process at an end and the national campaign joined, John Kerry's search for a running-mate and speculation over various ticket-balancing equations should occupy the pundits for a while, with Kerry tapping Washington businessman Jim Johnson to lead his search committee.

Meanwhile, the Bush-Cheney campaign kicked off its media campaign today - four days sooner than incumbent Bill Clinton did against Bob Dole in 1996.

Even though the thrust of the three TV ads (one in Spanish) is positive - stressing the incumbent's firm leadership in troubled times - the campaign found itself on the back foot almost immediately, with criticism over the use of 9/11 images, including what looks like rescue workers removing remains.

Bush adviser Karen Hughes was defensive on the morning talk shows, saying that the ads were just the start of "a conversation" the President would be having with voters.

The main ad also features an image of firefighters - not, by their helmet colour, NYPD. The use of the image angered ther International Association of Fire Fighters..

March 2

So, one phase ends and another begins.

John Edwards will announce on Wednesday morning that his quest for the White House is at an end.

While Georgia remains too close to call, a poor showing in Ohio meant Edwards' aspirations to compete nationally were frustrated, leaving John Kerry as the nominee-designate.

President Bush called Kerry to congratulate him on his apparent annointment as the Democratic nominee and effectively kick off the national campaign.

As results began to come in on Tuesday night, Edwards spoke to his supporters at his campaign headquarters in Atlanta, but did not formally announce that he had quit.

Rather, he congratulated Kerry and said that the issues he is fighting for, ".. are the causes of our party, these are the causes of our country, and these are the causes we will prevail on come November."

He and Kerry had spoken on the phone earlier in the evening, and his speech sounded like the words of a man seeking to smooth over any differences they may have had as rival candidates.

For Edwards, who was on Al Gore's VP shortlist in 2000, staying in the race has allowed Kerry to be perceived as a winner, a fact that will not go unnoticed by the Kerry camp. The nominee likewise went out of his way to praise Edwards' leadership and give the impression that recent reports of disharmony between the candidates had been little more than hype.

In Ohio, where Edwards had hoped to seriously challenge the front-runner, the Democratic base fell in pretty solidly behind Kerry, with Dick Gephardt, the former candidate, stumping across the state for the nominee. Also, the AFL-CIO endorsement for Kerry helped mobilise a lot of union supporters for Kerry.

In Vermont, the voters gave former Governor Howard Dean a last hurrah with a victory.

As well as the crucial state of New York, Kerry also emphatically won his home state of Massachusetts and the neighbouring state of Connecticut

Kerry is also ahead in polls in the largest delegate prize, California.

The challenge for Kerry now is to enter the 'second quarter' of the contest without losing momentum as we head towards the conventions, and, probably more importantly, raise the money to take on the incumbent in the fall.

The Bush-Cheney campaign begins its television ad blitz in earnest on Thursday, dipping into the estimated $100m war chest for a series of advertisements which will initially stress that President Bush 'knows what he's doing', since the Bush campaign thinks Kerry will be vulnerable based on perceived contradictions in his Senate voting record.

March 1

After John Edwards' combative performance in Sunday's debate, the question is inevitably being asked whether he's just too different from John Kerry to make an effective running mate.

As Dan Balz says in the Washington Post:

"Kerry allies say privately that the Senator is not a particular fan of Edwards, and a question to Kerry about what he has learned from Edwards about how to be a more likable candidate must have rankled the man who is in control of the Democratic race."

The 'dream' ticket may still happen, though; if there's enough pressure from party influentials, labour groups and activists who may previously have been committed to Howard Dean.

Super Tuesday looms, however, and Kerry is unlikely to let his main opponent's 11th-hour straw-clutching deflect him from his biggest moment in the spotlight.

Tomorrow's results should also offer some interesting pointers to November. Just as in 2000, the pivotal location was 'Florida, Florida, Florida'; this time around it could just be Ohio.

President Bush, meanwhile, is concentrating on doing what he does best - raising money.

What could be John Edwards' last public stand came today in a televised debate in New York.

A little more boisterous than the California encounter earlier this week, with Edwards working harder to emphasise the differences between himself and John Kerry, particularly on trade, but with the foreign policy debate being overtaken by events in Haiti, there seemed again to be more issues that united the two senators in their criticism of President Bush than divided them.

Opinion polls still show Kerry with a considerable lead in the ten states which vote on Tuesday. It is possible Edwards will remain in the race until it swings south through Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida on March 9, but by then his pursuit of the nomination may have become a mathematical impossibility.

Perhaps significantly, the latest CBS poll shows a Kerry-Edwards ticket leading Bush-Cheney by eight points, but both Democrats refused to rise to the bait when asked about potential running mates during today's debate.

Democratic party chairman Terry McAuliffe, meanwhile, predicted the end was in sight for the nomination process.

With the Bush-Cheney campaign expected to launch a significant media blitz at the end of next week, McAuliffe is keen to begin positioning the opposition candidate.

Finally, that was almost a Boston Red Sox jacket Doris Kearns Goodwin was wearing on Meet The Press, but, like the team's chances this year, it was almost but not quite.....