An increasingly desperate Howard Dean was all sweetness and light during a rather lacklustre candidate debate.

Admitting he wasn't "a perfect person", Dean was low-key and non-confrontational, accepting that his post-caucus speech had by now assumed the status of legend.

In probably the night's best line, Al Sharpton told him: "Don’t be hard on yourself about the hootering and hollering. If I spent the money you did and got 18 per cent, I’d still be hollering to Iowa. Don’t worry about it, Howard."

After taking his wife onto ABC News for an interview with Diane Sawyer, Dean even - yes, you guessed it - appeared on David Letterman to present his own top ten list: "Ways, I, Howard Dean, can turn things around.''

Tonight's Nightline on ABC is on the "fine art of political damage control."

And, perhaps predictably, Dean's discomfort seems to be Kerry's opportunity.

And of course, it's never too soon to be looking ahead to the raft of states - including South Carolina - that will vote on February 3rd.

President Bush, meanwhile, isn't worried about whoever the Democrats might pick, according to senior adviser Karl Rove.

Democrats debate tonight in New Hampshire, with Kerry showing a slight lead, but a significant number of potential voters undecided.

Wesley Clark is still polling well, and has been defusing claims that he has been trying to "outrank" Kerry among the veterans' base. He has also turned his fire both on Bush's policies on the economy and Iraq.

Vice president Dick Cheney is headed to Davos for the World Economic Forum, but in an interview on National Public Radio said the administration hasn't given up on the idea of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

A good performance tonight is particularly crucial for Howard Dean, as he tries to stop moderate anti-war Democrats from defecting - particularly to the Kerry camp.

Despite Dean's claims in his post-Iowa outburst , another wipeout in New Hampshire could cut his national itinerary short.

Much is being made of whether or not Dean was "snarling", "grimacing" or just plain pumped when he let out his now-famous whoop the other night. Whatever the motivation, the clip has been replayed relentlessly on politics shows and - crucially - on late night comedy programmes.

David Letterman the other night had "Top Ten Howard Dean Excuses", for his poor showing in Iowa; the two funniest of which were: "People don't seem to find shouting Presidential" and "Weekend before the caucus, wasted 55 crucial hours marrying Britney Spears."

But perhaps in true post-modern irony, it's on the internet that the incident - cruelly dubbed the "I have a scream" speech, as it was delivered on Martin Luther King day - has resonated the most.

Since the medium helped Dean more than any of the contenders to raise money and galvanise activists, some see it as poetic justice that his over-enthusiastic footfall will be replayed and remixed endlessly at the click of a mouse.

The Bush campaign officially kicked off last night with the President running the gamut of likely election issues in his State of the Union address.

Regardless of who his opponent turns out to be, much will turn on his cheeleader-in-chief, vice-president Dick Cheney (and what an odd photograph...)

Usually hard to tell, but John Kerry is definitely smiling more as he rides his bump in the polls from his Iowa success into New Hampshire. And it looks like his fundraising effort is starting to shift into high gear, with $250,000 in online donations since Iowa.

John Edwards is also trying to capitalise financially on his strong showing.

The Manchester Union Leader, however, the state's biggest paper, has endorsed Joe Lieberman.

According to an email from Craig Smith, Lieberman's NH co-ordinator:

'The word 'conviction' keeps coming up when we ask people about Lieberman.'.

(Let's hope in the right context...)

'It was demonstrated most emphatically in his position on the war in Iraq. While his fellow candidates voted with him in support of that war resolution, they have turned tail now, in light of anti-war Howard Dean's campaign.'


After his outburst on the stage as he conceded his third place on Monday night (shades of Neil Kinnock at the Sheffield rally, anyone?), Howard Dean is toning down his message as he tries to stem the slippage.

Meanwhile, given their propensity for shameless self-promotion, it's surely only a matter of time before one of the candidates gets roped into this....

So much for a four-way tie.

In the end, the outcome of the Iowa caucuses came down to one word: electability.

Despite Dick Gephardt’s labour support, and Howard Dean’s unprecedented grassroots organisation; what Democratic voters decided tonight was that they wanted someone who’s going to be capable of realistically defeating George Bush in November.

What they maybe couldn’t decide was between the two Johns – senators Kerry and Edwards.

But it was those two candidates who put their surge in support in the last few days to the best use tonight, and it is those two who will dominate the headlines tomorrow.

Only a week ago, Dean appeared to have an unassailable lead; his activists and supporters were thronging even the smallest town across the state, extending their base with many, many people who had not previously participated in a caucus or even been politically active.

Yet Dean’s inability to translate that support, and the networks his campaign had so skilfully established using the internet, will doubtless be spun tomorrow with the excuse that Iowa was somehow not “sophisticated” enough for the former Vermont governor’s message.

And Dean was, no doubt, hurt by the fact that he was probably not many people’s second-choice.

It remains, though, that he had the anti-war position snatched from beneath him by the credible, reasoned approach of John Kerry. And when that was combined with Kerry’s broadly-perceived electability, Dean’s angry persona appeared to be even more marginalised.

Dean's endorsements, even by Tom Harkin, Bill Bradley and Al Gore, counted for little.

Kerry, following a needed re-organisation of his campaign team, used his position on the war – and his genuine status as a Vietnam war hero – to great effect in TV ads and public appearances. In the words of Michael Barone, he was able to turn his credentials into a narrative.

He was undoubtedly helped by the appearances of of Jim Rassmann, a fellow Vietnam veteran, whose life Kerry had saved during combat.

For John Edwards, the strong second-place finish means he moves on to New Hampshire with renewed momentum. However, the caucus system – where Edwards was many people’s second-choice – may turn out to have served him better than will the straight primary of the Granite State.

Dick Gephardt’s long, distinguished political career effectively came to an end this evening with his disappointing showing. In some caucuses, he even fell below the 15 per cent viability level; and with many of his supporters’ second-choices being either Kerry or Edwards, it merely compounded his discomfort.

Kerry’s performance tonight may have the effect of galvanising the Bush campaign into kicking off its activity sooner, rather than the later they may have assumed they could were they expecting to face Dean in the general election.

But one of Kerry’s anti-Dean slogans from Iowa: “Don’t Send A Message, Send A President”, may well prove to be the sort of rallying cry that resonates with Democrats nationally as his cult of electability takes hold.

Steve

Todd Gitlin has a new political column on OpenDemocracy.net. In the first one, he talks about what it means to be a true outsider.

24 hours to go until the Iowa caucuses and the word is "fluid".

Dan Balz in the Washington Post succinctly explains why, given the nature of the contest.

Despite the traditional unreliability of Iowa polls, and the protestations of Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi that the latest Des Moines Register numbers - which give Kerry 26 per cent, Edwards 23, Dean 20 and Gephardt 18 - could be understating support by three or four points, the race is now officially too close to predict; and if it goes that way tomorrow night, expect some seriously intense caucusing.

Deborah McGregor, in my paper tonight, hits the nail on the head:

"A grim-looking Mr Dean seemed to be having trouble adjusting to the change in adjectives characterising his campaign. With their man no longer the ?front-running insurgent?, Mr Dean's aides struggled to understand what had happened. Some analysts speculated that the feistiness that played so well among young, Internet-savvy voters looking for a fresh voice did not sit as comfortably among Iowans, who traditionally prefer a polite candidate who can relate to them in their living rooms".

Just as Iowa is all about momentum, watch for the "negative momentum" that will hit the Dean campaign right between the eyes in the event that their man finishes third.


More details emerge on Carol Moseley Braun's withdrawal from the race and subsequent endorsement of Dean. According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Braun is being "helped" with her campaign debt by the Dean camp in exchange for her and some of her key staffers working for Dean - particularly important ahead of the South Carolina primary on Feb 3rd.

That is, providing Dean is still around to contest it.



George McGovern endorsed Wesley Clark.



Nice piece in Slate about the 'lamest press releases of the campaign'. Particularly like number four....

In the playing card stakes, first Saddam, now Howard Dean....???



Elsewhere, MoveOn.org wanted to run an ad critical of President Bush's fiscal policy, during the Super Bowl, but was turned down. According to AdAge, it's not because the year's biggest sports spectacular has already been fully booked by spots claiming cures for erectile dysfunction, but because its apparently the policy at CBS - which of course came under fire recently over its proposed miniseries 'The Reagans' - not to air "issue or advocacy ads" on the network.

The Super Bowl broadcast, on Feb 1st, will, however, feature two 30-second "public service announcements" by the White House. In the past, these have been used to promote an anti-drug message.

MoveOn's ad attacking the budget deficit, wich won its recent contest, will run on CNN between Jan 17th and 21st.


By the way, some of you may have noticed a huge jump in intensity of the blog recently - there is a reason: I've just started writing a campaign blog for the paper. It's called ZeroFour and i'm writing it in draft form in the 'Firehose' blog before editing it for the paper's site. Hence what you're seeing here is my first draft, and will be this way for a while, until i start writing straight into the zerofour template. ok? thanks for forebearance....

Steve