Wednesday, March 03, 2004

March 2

So, one phase ends and another begins.

John Edwards will announce on Wednesday morning that his quest for the White House is at an end.

While Georgia remains too close to call, a poor showing in Ohio meant Edwards' aspirations to compete nationally were frustrated, leaving John Kerry as the nominee-designate.

President Bush called Kerry to congratulate him on his apparent annointment as the Democratic nominee and effectively kick off the national campaign.

As results began to come in on Tuesday night, Edwards spoke to his supporters at his campaign headquarters in Atlanta, but did not formally announce that he had quit.

Rather, he congratulated Kerry and said that the issues he is fighting for, ".. are the causes of our party, these are the causes of our country, and these are the causes we will prevail on come November."

He and Kerry had spoken on the phone earlier in the evening, and his speech sounded like the words of a man seeking to smooth over any differences they may have had as rival candidates.

For Edwards, who was on Al Gore's VP shortlist in 2000, staying in the race has allowed Kerry to be perceived as a winner, a fact that will not go unnoticed by the Kerry camp. The nominee likewise went out of his way to praise Edwards' leadership and give the impression that recent reports of disharmony between the candidates had been little more than hype.

In Ohio, where Edwards had hoped to seriously challenge the front-runner, the Democratic base fell in pretty solidly behind Kerry, with Dick Gephardt, the former candidate, stumping across the state for the nominee. Also, the AFL-CIO endorsement for Kerry helped mobilise a lot of union supporters for Kerry.

In Vermont, the voters gave former Governor Howard Dean a last hurrah with a victory.

As well as the crucial state of New York, Kerry also emphatically won his home state of Massachusetts and the neighbouring state of Connecticut

Kerry is also ahead in polls in the largest delegate prize, California.

The challenge for Kerry now is to enter the 'second quarter' of the contest without losing momentum as we head towards the conventions, and, probably more importantly, raise the money to take on the incumbent in the fall.

The Bush-Cheney campaign begins its television ad blitz in earnest on Thursday, dipping into the estimated $100m war chest for a series of advertisements which will initially stress that President Bush 'knows what he's doing', since the Bush campaign thinks Kerry will be vulnerable based on perceived contradictions in his Senate voting record.

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