The latest poll shows Kerry, in his new guise as front-runner, attempting to consolidate in Arizona and Missouri - where he appears to be the big beneficiary from Gephardt's withdrawal - and running strongly in South Carolina, John Edwards' make-or-break state.

Last night's debate in Greenville had Kerry clarifying his earlier statement about 'not needing the South to win' a national election. In purely mathematical terms, as Kerry was speaking, that may be true. But next Tuesday's primaries offer the candidates a chance to explore - at least in a limited way - national viability.

Al Sharpton again rejected Terry McAuliffe's call for anyone who hasn't won a primary by next week to withdraw, while all of the candidates attacked the president on Iraq and the economy.

The president himself, meanwhile, visited New Hampshire just to remind folks who he was, after stopping off in Connecticut for a $1m fundraiser.

So, farewell then, Joe Trippi.

The darling of Dean's internet legions was the architect of a strategy that took a "no hoper from nowhere with no chance" to the verge of the big prize. That the candidate ultimately faltered was hardly Trippi's fault, although his replacement by seasoned Washington player Roy Neel dosen't seem to have come as a huge surprise.

Asked about the change, Dean said it would make the campaign "leaner and meaner". Perhaps he should avoid that word...

If this roll of the dice dosen't work, what will happen to the kids who had been energised by Dean's crusade? These first-time activists are a huge resource the party can scarce afford to squander heading into the national contest. Whether they stay engaged in the process depends very much on how the former Governor handles his eventual exit from the race.

As the candidates ready their regional messages for the raft of primaries next Tuesday, the Kerry campaign is hoping that the relative lack of negative ads against their man will continue, further emphasising his electability.

Even despite the renewed focus on the WMD issue prompted by David Kay's resignation, there are some suggestions that Iraq may be fading as a campaign issue among some voters, and that the economy will be key in next Tuesday's contests

Something for - almost - everyone

With John Kerry about 30 points behind Howard Dean in New Hampshire opinion polls at the turn of the year, few observers gave him a chance at winning the first Democratic primary contest.

Yet tonight he rode his significant Iowa bounce to a clear victory, completing a turnaround that was, in part, made possible by his nearest challenger's defeat in Iowa and reaction to it.

Kerry came onstage at his campaign headquarters to give his victory speech after about 60 per cent of the votes had been counted, giving him about a 14 per cent lead over the former Governor of Vermont. His early appearance was due to the fact that he had scheduled a round of TV interviews with stations in the Feb 3 primary states.

For Dean, the accomplishment was to be able to point to a solid second-place showing and a resucitated campaign which had been gasping for breath ever since his caucus concession.

Dean can also claim that the contest is now a two-horse race between himself and Kerry; that there is a clear gap between himself and the rest of the field. That, however, may be a little premature.

John Edwards, who also gained rapidly in the polls over the past few days, to the point where he was locked in a fight for third place tonight with Wesley Clark, described this as the "New Englanders' primary", fully expecting the candidates from neighbouring states to have a lock on the first two places.

Edwards can look forward to next Tuesday's primary in the state of his birth, South Carolina, where he is leading handily in local polls.

Yet while Edwards is still coming out among issue-related micro-polls as the Democrat with the highest "favourability" rating, Kerry is still well ahead in terms of "electability".

For Gen Clark, who bypassed Iowa's caucuses to concentrate his resources on New Hampshire, and for Joe Lieberman, who did the same, the remaining road in this year's campaign may be shorter. They both now probably need to win one of the other six primary contests - Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Delaware, Michigan and Missouri (where the Kerry camp is actively wooing Dick Gephardt's supporters) - next Tuesday to demonstrate their continued viability.

Gen Clark may have had his hopes artificially raised earlier in the day by "winning" the vote at Dixville Notch, traditionally the first town to vote in the state. He polled eight votes.

Yet the fact remains that those four candidates now go into the 'mini-super Tuesday' contests in the south and west with something to cling to from tonight's performance.

For Kerry, he is left to ponder that no candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire in contested primaries has subsequently gone on to win the presidency.

Eve of the poll in New Hampshire and snow threatens. While Granite State voters are hardy souls, the story goes that the last time there was a huge snowsorm on primary day was in 1984, when Gary Hart's younger voters turned out as Walter Mondale's older supporters stayed at home. Hart won the primary, but in th long run Mondale took the nomination, only to lose 49 states to Ronald Reagan.

Despite the weather, a record turnout could be on the cards.

Kerry's still the front-runner, although his commanding lead of a couple of days ago appears to have narrowed, with Howard Dean crawling back into a solid second place despite the fact that the late night comics and Sunday news shows haven't exhausted the "I have a scream" clip.

And talking of the late night shows, The Daily Show with Jon Stewart might well be the funniest political satire around, but what it has undoubtedly done very cleverly has been to tap into the fact that younger viewers are using the comedy shows as their source for campaign news.


A Newsweek poll, meanwhile, gives Kerry the edge over Bush in a general election matchup, the first time any of the Democrat contenders has broken ahead of the incumbent.

With electability such a prominent issue for Democrats, that can only strengthen Kerry's hand. But the other campaigns think the Massachussets senator is getting a bit of an easy ride.

Looking ahead to South Carolina; the latest poll has Edwards edging Kerry, with Al Sharpton in third - about half the registered Democrats in the state are black - and Dean back in fifth place behind Clark.