February 20

As the Bush and Kerry camps position themselves to fight a national campaign with resounding echoes of the past, an interesting piece today by Daniel Schorr raises the question of what Secretary of State Colin Powell must think of his current boss....

This all comes at a time when there are suggestions that some senior Republicans might be starting to think the unthinkable.

Despite a recent poll showing Kerry should choose John Edwards as his running mate, the arm-wrestling continues between the two, with the southern gentleman throwing down the gauntlet to the yankee interloper, as long as the duel takes place in his own backyard.

According to The Note, though, they'll get a chance to square off this Sunday on George Stephanopolous's 'This Week' show. By the end of that, it should be clearer what Edwards' strategy and tone is going to be in the run-up to the March 2nd contests.

(Following on from yesterday's musical reference, by the way, it should probably be pointed out, if anyone bothers, that Edwards' campaign plane used to be the preserve of one Paul McCartney.)

With Howard Dean out of the- competitive - picture, his former campaign manager Joe Trippi says the thousands of people who contributed to his effort were supporting a beta test of a new form of online democracy, and pegs the beginning of Dean's decline as a viable contender for the nomination to the Al Gore endorsement.

Political Americana's 'Button poll' attempts to measure candidates' popularity based on sales of their campaign buttons and memorabilia. It seemed to work for the Wisconsin contest.

But as Dave Barry helpfully points out, forget the primaries; this is the vote to watch....

February 17

If the polls were to be believed, with John Kerry's expected victory tonight in a closer-than-expected Wisconsin primary, the endgame of the Democratic presidential nomination would have well and truly begun to play out.

The Massachusetts senator was set to add another 72 delegates to his tally, all but clearing the field ahead of 'Super Tuesday' on March 2, when Democrats in California, New York and Texas vote.

But wait just a minute...

Kerry was obviously rattled by the late surge by John Edwards - who picked up a lot of last-minute 'undecideds' and the endorsement of a couple of major local papers; as well as being bolstered by a good performance in a debate on Sunday night.

Edwards' strong showing was in part a signal that Democrats don't necessarily want this contest to be over too soon.

So while Kerry has accused him of "cherry-picking" states and not campaigning nationally, Edwards lives to fight another day. And in the long run, that may turn out to be the best thing for Kerry and for the party.

The eventual nominee will need to remain in the media spotlight for the next few months in order to attract campaign contributions, and will need to hone his debating skills for the general election campaign.

Having John Edwards as a foil - even if the Carolinian eventually ends up on the ticket - gives the media a reason, albeit a somewhat artificial one, to continue following the primary process.

In tonight's other back story, for Howard Dean, tomorrow may well be the first day of the rest of his life as a non-candidate. Whether it is or not, the question remains as to how the 'Deaniacs' - the group of young, dedicated supporters he brought into the party - might react to his defeat.

The truly hardcore, 'no-one-but-Dean' brigade, epitomised by those who wrote to the DNC saying they would find it hard to support a nominee who did not commit to repealing all of the Bush tax cut, might well dissipate, disillusioned with national politics.

But the expectation is that enough of them are more inclined to support 'anyone-but-Bush' and as such will rally behind the eventual nominee.

A lot, however, depends on Dean himself; and how he handles the mechanics of his disengagement.

Elsewhere, tonight, Democrat Ben Chandler won the special election to fill the vacant congressional seat in Kentucky.

The victory leaves the Republicans with a 228-205 majority in the House, with one vacancy and one independent.

Having been bounced into starting his campaign early, President Bush himself, meanwhile, was in Louisiana today, speaking to a group of national guardsmen soon to depart for Iraq. The president defended his decision to take the country to war.

"...saying that he had the choice of believing U.S. intelligence that said Iraq was developing weapons of mass destruction, or "take the word of a madman," in reference to former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

"Faced with that choice, I will defend America every time," he said.

February 15

Howard Dean appears to be preparing to withdraw from the race after the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday, despite comments to the contrary.

Given Wisconsin's history of favouring outsiders, Dean had been optimistic of a strong showing, and had painted the midwestern state as his last stand.

But for Kerry to take the state - as polls indicate he will, to add to his weekend victories in Nevada and Washington DC - indicates that, this time around, it's more important to Democrats that they bolster a credible candidate able go up against President Bush, than encourage a late insurgency candidate.

If Dean does withdraw, it leaves everyone standing around in the playground waiting for a Kerry vs Edwards scrap. It might never happen.

The Bush campaign, meanwhile, has been trying out its anti-Kerry tack on a website ad, a strategy which allows a national trial of how a message is going down with the press and voters before it might be rolled out in expensive TV spots.

But the GOP had an online setback when NBC objected to the Bush campaign's use in a promotional clip of footage from the president's appearance on last week's Meet The Press.

On this week's show, Democratic congressman Charles Rangel said there would to an extent be a carry-over in anti-Bush sentiment from the 2000 election, and predicted a huge turnout - not just among minority voters - in the coming contest.

"...it just won't be the minority community. I think those people that have managed to reduce the tax burden on the richest people in the world, those people that refuse to have their kids involved in a draft but have no problem in saying, "Let's go to war, I'll hold your coat," that they are so anxious to maintain this power, both in the House and the Senate and the presidency, that they are going to raise all the money that they can to destroy the Democratic candidate and the Democratic Party.

But I think that we Democrats know that, in a democracy, we have taken it for four years, we are mad as hell, we're not taking it anymore."