Something for - almost - everyone
With John Kerry about 30 points behind Howard Dean in New Hampshire opinion polls at the turn of the year, few observers gave him a chance at winning the first Democratic primary contest.
Yet tonight he rode his significant Iowa bounce to a clear victory, completing a turnaround that was, in part, made possible by his nearest challenger's defeat in Iowa and reaction to it.
Kerry came onstage at his campaign headquarters to give his victory speech after about 60 per cent of the votes had been counted, giving him about a 14 per cent lead over the former Governor of Vermont. His early appearance was due to the fact that he had scheduled a round of TV interviews with stations in the Feb 3 primary states.
For Dean, the accomplishment was to be able to point to a solid second-place showing and a resucitated campaign which had been gasping for breath ever since his caucus concession.
Dean can also claim that the contest is now a two-horse race between himself and Kerry; that there is a clear gap between himself and the rest of the field. That, however, may be a little premature.
John Edwards, who also gained rapidly in the polls over the past few days, to the point where he was locked in a fight for third place tonight with Wesley Clark, described this as the "New Englanders' primary", fully expecting the candidates from neighbouring states to have a lock on the first two places.
Edwards can look forward to next Tuesday's primary in the state of his birth, South Carolina, where he is leading handily in local polls.
Yet while Edwards is still coming out among issue-related micro-polls as the Democrat with the highest "favourability" rating, Kerry is still well ahead in terms of "electability".
For Gen Clark, who bypassed Iowa's caucuses to concentrate his resources on New Hampshire, and for Joe Lieberman, who did the same, the remaining road in this year's campaign may be shorter. They both now probably need to win one of the other six primary contests - Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Delaware, Michigan and Missouri (where the Kerry camp is actively wooing Dick Gephardt's supporters) - next Tuesday to demonstrate their continued viability.
Gen Clark may have had his hopes artificially raised earlier in the day by "winning" the vote at Dixville Notch, traditionally the first town to vote in the state. He polled eight votes.
Yet the fact remains that those four candidates now go into the 'mini-super Tuesday' contests in the south and west with something to cling to from tonight's performance.
For Kerry, he is left to ponder that no candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire in contested primaries has subsequently gone on to win the presidency.
With John Kerry about 30 points behind Howard Dean in New Hampshire opinion polls at the turn of the year, few observers gave him a chance at winning the first Democratic primary contest.
Yet tonight he rode his significant Iowa bounce to a clear victory, completing a turnaround that was, in part, made possible by his nearest challenger's defeat in Iowa and reaction to it.
Kerry came onstage at his campaign headquarters to give his victory speech after about 60 per cent of the votes had been counted, giving him about a 14 per cent lead over the former Governor of Vermont. His early appearance was due to the fact that he had scheduled a round of TV interviews with stations in the Feb 3 primary states.
For Dean, the accomplishment was to be able to point to a solid second-place showing and a resucitated campaign which had been gasping for breath ever since his caucus concession.
Dean can also claim that the contest is now a two-horse race between himself and Kerry; that there is a clear gap between himself and the rest of the field. That, however, may be a little premature.
John Edwards, who also gained rapidly in the polls over the past few days, to the point where he was locked in a fight for third place tonight with Wesley Clark, described this as the "New Englanders' primary", fully expecting the candidates from neighbouring states to have a lock on the first two places.
Edwards can look forward to next Tuesday's primary in the state of his birth, South Carolina, where he is leading handily in local polls.
Yet while Edwards is still coming out among issue-related micro-polls as the Democrat with the highest "favourability" rating, Kerry is still well ahead in terms of "electability".
For Gen Clark, who bypassed Iowa's caucuses to concentrate his resources on New Hampshire, and for Joe Lieberman, who did the same, the remaining road in this year's campaign may be shorter. They both now probably need to win one of the other six primary contests - Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Delaware, Michigan and Missouri (where the Kerry camp is actively wooing Dick Gephardt's supporters) - next Tuesday to demonstrate their continued viability.
Gen Clark may have had his hopes artificially raised earlier in the day by "winning" the vote at Dixville Notch, traditionally the first town to vote in the state. He polled eight votes.
Yet the fact remains that those four candidates now go into the 'mini-super Tuesday' contests in the south and west with something to cling to from tonight's performance.
For Kerry, he is left to ponder that no candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire in contested primaries has subsequently gone on to win the presidency.
posted by Steve at 2:48 AM
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