October 31

So, is the Bin Laden tape a classic 'October Surprise'? And if so, how is it likely to break at the polls?

Nice piece in the Post by Ellen Goodman, in which she explores the "pre-Sept 11 mindset" and how both the nation and the world have changed in the intervening period. She says:

"On Sept. 12 the world was divided into us and them, the community of nations against the terrorists. Today, the world is divided into the United States and them. After all the bungling and arrogance, we are nearly isolated."

This week's Time magazine runs an interview with Osama Bin Laden's half-brother, in which he says - seriously - it's tricky getting restaurant reservations and that what happened on September 11 "hurt the family financially." No, really?

Oh, and by the way - this advisory from Time indicates that every eventuality is being planned for:

TIME’S 2004 ELECTION COVERAGE:
TIME plans to have a special election issue on newsstands Thursday, Nov. 4 – if there is a clear winner in the presidential race. (If TIME does not publish Thursday, the next issue is scheduled for Mon., Nov. 8.)

Over at Newsweek, meanwhile, their weekly tracking poll shows Bush pulling ahead 50-44 (the candidates were tied last week), although Eleanor Clift thinks turnout will be the key, and a high number favours the challenger.

The Philadelphia Inquirer - in a state which has logged over half a million new registered voters - has a poll showing Bush and Kerry in a virtual tie; with, interestingly, the President's approval/disapproval rating split at 47-47, while the Des Moines Register has Kerry edging slightly ahead among voters who have already cast their ballots.

One crucial aspect of the candidates' ground game in the closing phase will be motivating activists to knock on doors. Bush chief of staff Andrew Card told CNN that the fact that his team had mobilised "over a million volunteers in key battleground states" makes him confident of victory.

In this effort on the part of both camps, younger voters and students are an important element of that.

Not that young people pay any attention at all to celebrity endorsements, but ... as John Mercurio on CNN.com points out, Bush may well have the star-power of Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling stumping for him, but the crowds that have turned out to see Bruce Springsteen at his recent Kerry rallies have proved so remarkable that another event was scheduled for Miami at short notice.

Mercurio says it's Bruce's fellow Garden Stater Jon Bon Jovi we should probably be sorry for, since he has apparently been bumped to John Edwards' campaign bus to make room for The Boss...