Wednesday, February 04, 2004

Seven candidates, seven states, 269 delegates at stake.

John Edwards had made South Carolina his make or break contest, and the people of the Palmetto State stepped up for him, responding to his message of inclusion and his priorities of jobs and the economy, to deliver what appeared to be a comfortable victory over John Kerry with about half the precincts reporting.

Edwards had gotten a boost at the weekend with a Gallup poll that showed both he and Kerry would beat George W. Bush in a head-to-head contest, and Edwards' win tonight allows his supporters to reinforce the notion of their man supplanting Howard Dean as the legitimate second-place alternative to Kerry.

But Dean's not out yet. Despite not campaigning in any of tonight's states, the former Vermont Governor is confident of a strong showing in upcoming ballots in Michigan, Maine and Washington state.

For Kerry, who was in Seattle tonight as the results from elsewhere came in, apparently decisive wins in Missouri - the biggest prize of the evening in terms of delegates - and Delaware, together with strong showings everywhere else, allow him to carry his seemingly relentless momentum into the weekend's contests.

A Fox News exit poll in South Carolina showed that, while Edwards won his native state, Kerry was still outpolling him in terms of 'electability'. Also, interestingly, SC voters said that no matter who they had voted for tonight, they would be "satisfied" if Kerry turned out to be the eventual nominee.

The front-loaded process favours the candidate with momentum, and Kerry certainly has that at the moment. If he can turn in a solid showing in Arizona and New Mexico among the nation's fastest-growing electoral group, Latinos, it will reinforce his national viability.

And while Edwards is set to do well again in upcoming contests in Tennessee and Virginia, it may be that by the time March 2nd rolls around - with another raft of states including California and New York - Kerry's bandwagon could be unstoppable.

Of the other candidates, Gen Wesley Clark was in an early three-way tie for the lead in Oklahoma with Kerry and Edwards. Gen Clark intends to stick to his plan of going to Tennessee to campaign tomorrow.

Al Sharpton, who lost the support of many black voters to John Edwards in South Carolina, pledged that his campaign will go on regardless.

"I'll be at the Convention," he told CBS News, "if I have to walk from Brooklyn to Boston."

For Joe Lieberman, however, the clock may have all but run out.

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