The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows support slipping for an attack - particularly a unilateral attack by the US - against Iraq. Interestingly, also, the survey shows that majority of Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy for the first time since he took office.
More than 60 per cent believe the next round of the tax cut stimulus package only benefits the rich. Despite Bush's hackneyed protestations that anyone who criticises the tax cut is guilty of "class war", maybe people are starting to disentangle the leader of the war against terror from the pal of big business. As Maureen Dowd says in today's New York Times, "...there's nothing more effective than deploring class warfare while ensuring that your class wins."
Whether dissatisfaction on those two fronts would translate into a vote against the incumbent in a presidential election obviously depends of course on what happens in the Gulf and on who the Democrats run against him; but it might be worth both parties considering the Paul Tsongas factor.
In the aftermath of Bush senior's previous military adventure in the Gulf, he headed for a re-election year with a historic high approval rating. Tsongas was the first Democrat to declare his candidacy for the 1992 election, and enjoyed reminding voters he was the only candidate brave enough to declare with his opponent's popularity rating over 90 per cent.
And we all know the eventual outcome of the '92 election.
There seems little doubt that once any kind of military conflict starts, Americans will rally round the flag and Bush's popularity will edge higher; particularly if the conflict is mercifully short and "successful", however that is defined.
But with such a groundswell of popular opinion against a war in the first place - and with Iowa and New Hampshire only a year away - it might prove a challenge for the White House to build a winning platform without the fundamental trust of the people on the two crucial planks of foreign policy and domestic prosperity.
Expect a lot more inter-twining of foreign policy with homeland security in the months to come, and maybe - if Karl Rove dosen't think the numbers are coming around - even the dropping of the plan to end tax on stock dividends.
More than 60 per cent believe the next round of the tax cut stimulus package only benefits the rich. Despite Bush's hackneyed protestations that anyone who criticises the tax cut is guilty of "class war", maybe people are starting to disentangle the leader of the war against terror from the pal of big business. As Maureen Dowd says in today's New York Times, "...there's nothing more effective than deploring class warfare while ensuring that your class wins."
Whether dissatisfaction on those two fronts would translate into a vote against the incumbent in a presidential election obviously depends of course on what happens in the Gulf and on who the Democrats run against him; but it might be worth both parties considering the Paul Tsongas factor.
In the aftermath of Bush senior's previous military adventure in the Gulf, he headed for a re-election year with a historic high approval rating. Tsongas was the first Democrat to declare his candidacy for the 1992 election, and enjoyed reminding voters he was the only candidate brave enough to declare with his opponent's popularity rating over 90 per cent.
And we all know the eventual outcome of the '92 election.
There seems little doubt that once any kind of military conflict starts, Americans will rally round the flag and Bush's popularity will edge higher; particularly if the conflict is mercifully short and "successful", however that is defined.
But with such a groundswell of popular opinion against a war in the first place - and with Iowa and New Hampshire only a year away - it might prove a challenge for the White House to build a winning platform without the fundamental trust of the people on the two crucial planks of foreign policy and domestic prosperity.
Expect a lot more inter-twining of foreign policy with homeland security in the months to come, and maybe - if Karl Rove dosen't think the numbers are coming around - even the dropping of the plan to end tax on stock dividends.
posted by Steve at 9:05 PM
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